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Looking at the conference standings and looking at blown leads and/or not being able to close out games as well as losing to teams we shouldn't lose to, Iowa would be an easy lock-in for NCAA Tourney as well as upper tier B1G team.
Mich. St.= blown lead and unable to close out game with missed easy baskets and free throws.
Purdue= No business losing to a not-so-good Purdue team in overtime
Minnesota= blew a late lead with missed easy baskets and free throws
Wisc.= blew a late lead with missed easy baskets and free throws
Nebraska= No business losing this game with a 19 point lead at one point and 16 at half
Iowa would be tied for 3rd or 4th with Ohio State at probably 10-4 in the conference and over 20+ wins
We are this close to being an upper tier B1G team. Probably another good offensive threat away.
Great breakdown here. Especially in such a competitive conference, there's an extremely fine line between winning and losing in a lot of games. As you said, Iowa really isn't far off right now.
We are SO CLOSE to being an upper tier B1G team. We had these games in our grasp and just couldn't close the deal.
Most of these loses were due to missing free throws and easy bunny shots.
Very true, but on the flipside, the home game against Wisconsin and the game at Penn State could have gone the other way as well. But Iowa is definitely knocking on the door to enter that upper tier.
Right now, Iowa is in the NCAA tourney selection committee's doghouse. Too many lost leads, few road wins, and RPI. Oh, ye of little faith.....Shtuff and Miracles both happen, however! Hearts and minds can be changed. Look for a head-scratching, heart-stopping Hawkeye upset of #1 Indiana on their home court on March 2. Who would dare keep them out of the tourney after that happens?
If Iowa can win these last four regular season games, I think the Hawkeyes are close to a lock to make it, no matter what happens in the conference tourney. A win in the conference tourney would make it a lock, IMO.
Before i thought winning the rest of the games with only losing at Indiana and Iowa would probably be a lock for NCAA Tourney.
This last loss at Nebraska was the nail in the coffin for Iowa. Iowa plays very well at home, so I inferred all wins with the last part of the schedule. The only loss I had penciled in was at Indiana. The win at Nebraska would have put Iowa at 7-7 and probably somewhere around 5th place in the conference.
It doesn't matter if Iowa retaliates and beats Nebraska by 30+ points at home. The nail has already been hammered in the coffin regarding the NCAA Tourney.
Well, I was going to start my own thread on this topic, but I refrained, as U2hawk did a great job outlining how close this team is to being Very good.
And the Hawkeyes are still in the hunt, however, the game at Indiana is a major, major hurdle. Although, less than one year ago, we beat IU at
Carver and played a very tough game against them at start of this BigTenn season.
Iowa dropped in the Sagarin rankings.........however.......it is still a MAJOR PLUS to be in the Big Ten conference, the Best Conference in all of
College hoops this year. I think we are in IF we win the 3 homes games, (including Illinois on 3/5) and win 1 game in BTT, maybe 2.
To wit: Here is the SAGARIN as of today....
1 Indiana = 94.30 24 3 77.33( 52) 7 1 | 8 3 | 93.76 1 | 94.79 2
5 Michigan = 90.91 22 4 78.91( 13) 4 4 | 8 4 | 91.67 2 | 90.18 8
8 Ohio State = 89.80 20 7 78.82( 14) 4 6 | 5 7 | 89.91 9 | 89.58 11
9 Michigan State = 89.63 21 6 80.32( 2) 5 5 | 7 6 | 90.00 8 | 89.19 12
10 Wisconsin = 89.55 19 8 80.28( 3) 4 5 | 8 8 | 88.74 12 | 90.40 7
23 Minnesota = 85.83 18 9 80.70( 1) 2 6 | 5 8 | 85.89 25 | 85.65 24
40 Illinois = 84.20 19 9 79.59( 5) 4 7 | 5 7 | 84.35 36 | 83.94 42
41 Iowa = 84.00 17 10 76.56( 70) 2 6 | 3 7 | 83.86 43 | 84.02 41
65 Purdue = 80.16 13 14 78.49( 23) 0 7 | 2 9 | 80.39 63 | 79.83 70
116 Northwestern = 76.48 13 15 78.70( 18) 1 6 | 3 10 | 77.81 97 | 75.13 128
118 Nebraska = 76.11 13 14 78.72( 17) 0 8 | 1 11 | 76.97 108 | 75.17 126
This post was edited by Skyhawk52 14 months ago
'Texan by birth, Hawkeye by the Grace of God'
If Iowa can win out minus a loss at Indiana and a few other teams such as Minnesota continue losing, beat Illinois, beat Purdue...etc. which would put Iowa up maybe in the top 6 or 7, we may have a chance to make it in. The B1G Tourney will also help if we can squeeze out a win or 2.
Lose another game which should be won and Iowa's ship will have sunk.
You could probably make the same breakdown for every team in the conference
That's a great point. As I alluded to above, I think a lot of B1G teams this year are sort of in the same boat in terms of having played in a lot of close games. Iowa could have lost to Wisconsin and Penn State, and on the other hand, could have won several more games as well. And Iowa is not alone in terms of losing multiple nailbiters.
As tempting as it is to look at what-ifs that way, Iowa also could have easily lost some of the games it won, so in the end, your record is your record. I think about the 2010 football team the same way. As other posters have stated, every team could make cases for games it should have won or let slip away. That said, there is no doubt that Iowa has lost an inordinate amount of close games and an argument could be made from a probability standpoint that the Iowa team is "better" than its record.
In terms of the NCAA, my personal take is that if our only remaining regular season loss is IU, AND we win at least one B10 tourney game, we squeak in. Of course, that will depend a lot on what other teams do as well, but the reputation of the B10 conference will help us. The voters have already stated that the focus is on picking the best teams period, and that "balancing out" the conferences is not part of the discussion.
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