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A friend of mine, who is a long-time Hawkeye fan and whose opinion I certainly respect thinks that the
Iowa Hawkeyes are already Dancing. I'm not ready to say that, but I'm very optimistic.
In the current Sagarin Computer rankings, (thru Saturday's games), Iowa stands at #35,
If you look at some factors, you could make the case that Iowa has done as much as
North Carolina, as an example to earn a trip to NC2A's.
For instance, UNC has one win versus the current Top 25 and so does Iowa.
Rank Team vs Top 25 Top 50
#18 Creighton 1 -0 2-2
#20 New Mexico 0 -1 6-3
#21 North Carolina 1 -6 3-7
#35 Iowa 1-6 4-8
#36 I.S. who ? 2-4 5-8
#39 UCLA 3-1 5-2
#41 Wictchita St 2-5 5-6
#44 Illinois 3-6 4-8
'Texan by birth, Hawkeye by the Grace of God'
None of the established bracketologists even have Iowa in their first four out at this point, let alone in the field. It's definitely possible if the Hawkeyes can make a run in Chicago, but I don't think Iowa is even on the bubble as of today.
The huge key for the Hawkeyes will be which computer rankings the committee considers most strongly. Officially, the NCAA sanctions the RPI, and that hurts the Hawkeyes. After that, the NCAA suggests that the committee can use outside computer rankings like Sagarin and KenPom or others if they so choose. Every computer ranking besides the RPI suggests that Iowa should be in right now.
This post was edited by thejumper5 16 months ago
Which Is a joke in my opinion, you can't tell me Iowa is not a top 64 team.
No doubt about it, but that's not what the tournament does - or even aims to do. There are 30+ automatic bids handed out to conference tournament champions, and a lot of those are mid-major schools that Iowa is better than on paper. So if you don't win your conference tournament, then you need to be one the of best 35 (or so) at-large teams (I don't have the exact numbers in front of me).
Also, as anyone who has seen the classic film 12 Angry Men can attest, it only takes one dissenting voice in the room to slowly convince the others. Hopefully someone advocates for Iowa early and convinces the rest of the committee to consider the Hawks.
Here's a good article that talks, in part, about how the selection committee uses the RPI compared with other computer polls.
I think Iowa's chances are still TBD because the unknown factor is how many other unranked teams might play their way into the tournament by going deep into their conference tournaments to impress the committee. Or if they win their tournaments, which would give an automatic bid to a team that might otherwise not have been invited to the dance.
If teams like Stanford or Washington out of the Pac-12 or LSU out of the SEC or UTEP or UCF out of C-USA or Baylor from the Big 12 win their tournaments, they'll take that many more at-large bids off the table.
I think Iowa will need to win two in the Big 10 tournament to make the NCAA field. That would mean beating Northwestern and then one of the Top 4 seeds (Indiana, Michigan, MSU or Ohio State).
What jumper said........
Most years, 6th place in the Big Ten and at least a .500 record gets you in the
And this year, the BigTen Conference is WITHOUT A DOUBT the toughest conference in America.
This bodes well for theeeee Iowa HAWKEYES.
This post was edited by Skyhawk52 16 months ago
right now i think the probability of iowa making the ncaa field is about 0.3. (roughly, the probability of iowa beating a team like msu in the conference tnmnt's second round.) at the same time, i think the hawks are quite capable of winning a couple of games in the ncaa tnmnt if they do get in. it is unlikely that a second round ncaa opponent would be tougher than a second round b10 opponent.
The thing to remember when it comes to our 9-9 B1G record...not all B1G schedules are the same. Only 7 of our games were against the top teams (IU, UM, MSU, OSU, UW), and we went 1-6 in those contests. (Illinois had 8 games and was 2-6, Minnesota had 9 and was 3-6) We basically fed off the bottom feeders of the league. The wins against Illinois and Minnesota are nice, but they were at home. In today's NCAA tourney selection, road wins trump home wins, and we just don't have enough to be in.
So once again, the best way is to get in is to win the B1G tournament title. Do that and nothing else matters.
Iowa is clearly one of the 50 best teams in the nation, but realistically right now they are 5th or so out of the tournament with a lot that needs to go right in the next week.
"I was brought in here to change the culture. I'm going to coach with passion" - Fran McCaffery.
Way back when, I thought with 9-9 in the conference plus a tourney win would get them into the dance. Now I do not think even two wins in the tourney will get them in because they will be considered to have won them on a neutral court. The auto-qualifiers from so many minor conferences sucks for the bigger schools wanting to be asked to dance and know how to tango.
Get ready for an NIT round in IC.
I don't really know how I feel about the auto-bids. Liberty is now in with 20 losses. Seems kind of ridiculous to reward a few good days of play, versus an entire season of play.
That's the same way i feel about the NCAA tourney. Having a whole season just to seed you for a one and done tourney is just stupid. Maybe exciting, but in no way does it show who is the best team in the country consistently
If you don't like my opinion, at least you can enjoy the view
Iowa needs 2 wins this week to make the tourney and not to get blown out in the semi's. Imo.
I agree completely with this.
I agree to a certain extent that the regular season really doesn't mean as much in college basketball as it does in other sports. I'd be fine with them narrowing the field to 32 or 16 to make it super competitive just to get in, but I don't ever see that happening.
Given the current system, and the fact that there's likely no turning back, I actually like the fact that schools like Liberty can earn their way in. It's the ultimate cinderella story.
I think that puts Iowa in the conversation, so anything would be possible at that point. But I think Iowa needs to make it to Sunday in Chicago in order to have better than a 50% chance of making it in.
If they are playing on Sunday....they are in the Dance....period.
Here is my question: Is it better (with this young team) to make the NCAA and get eliminated in the first round OR play in the NIT and potentially play several games and gain significant tourney exposure?
I would love to see them in the NCAA tourney however in Nov. and Dec. most ( myself included) felt this team was a year away. I think the idea of making it to the Ncaa tourney and losing in round one does nthing to help this team down the road while playing several (potentially) games in the NIT may be just what we need to get started towards a great 2013 - 2014 season.
This is key, and reiterates what many of us have been saying. Iowa is going to need to win two games, then hope for some luck, though it seems the only "lucky" teams in the B10 this year are Wisconsin and IU.
I have mixed thoughts about the automatic bids and "cinderella stories." I don't mind giving an automatic bid to a team in a lower-tier conference, but would propose some baseline qualifying criteria, such as having at least a .500 conference record and a winning overall record. Something doesn't seem right about letting LIberty in at the expense of obviously better teams.
IMO, Iowa needs win 2 games this weekend (beating Izzo) to be considered.
Other than that it's NIT!
Great question, and we actually discussed in another thread recently. For recruiting purposes, I think a first round exit in the NCAA Tournament is preferable, as it still gives the program more exposure and tangible evidence that things are going in the right direction. But for the development of the current players and coaches, I think it's better to win the NIT. That would give Iowa five games against quality competition in a must-win situation, with at least two (if not three or four) coming on a neutral or away court. It would give Iowa that much more experience in pulling out close games, and ideally, get the Hawkeyes over that hump to where they're finally confident in late-game situations. It'd also give the players and coaches that many more practices to work together and build chemistry heading into next season. And lastly, the semifinals and finals of the NIT do get a decent amount of exposure, being played at Madison Square Garden and televised nationally.
"Here is my question: Is it better (with this young team) to make the NCAA and get eliminated in the first round OR play in the NIT and potentially play several games and gain significant tourney exposure?
I would love to see them in the NCAA tourney however in Nov. and Dec. most ( myself included) felt this team was a year away. I think the idea of making it to the Ncaa tourney and losing in round one does nthing to help this team down the road while playing several (potentially) games in the NIT may be just what we need to get started towards a great 2013 - 2014 season."
I think your scenario is very inaccurate. This team could easily make a run into the Sweet Sixteen this year. There is little chance that they could get any farther. But I think we are playing well enough right now to handle any 10-16 seed we would meet in the first round. In the second round I hope we are facing 3 or 4 seed or someone that upset those seeds. A 3 or 4 seed is a top 20 team. But we have played 5 of the 6 top 20 teams close in road games. On a neutral court, I like our chances. So in answer to your question, I want the NCAA bid so the Team will get a taste of what it takes to play with the Big Boys in the Tournament. The experience should be a catalyst to the team's summer developement and progress, to that next level in 2013-2024.
(edited to add the quote)
This post was edited by WiscHawk 16 months ago
I want an NCAA bid also however I fear we would be one of those 10 -12 seeds which means we start out with a high "quality" team and we are one and done. Would absolutely love to see us go to the sweet 16 but I am not sure that is a realistic dream - especially given the way we have shot the ball from outside this year.
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